Assessing U.S. Agricultural Export Growth Under North American Free Trade Agreement: A Shift-Share Analysis

Abstract

NAFTA is the first free-trade pact that has transformed and driven economic integration among the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The three NAFTA countries’ agricultural export performance in four major classified commodities was each analyzed prior to the implementation and active years of NAFTA by applying a dynamic shift share model to data from 1992 through 2018. The overall results show United States was found to be the overall beneficiary NAFTA among the participating countries. The U.S. led in the exports of all the four major classified agricultural commodities followed by Canada, and then, Mexico. The most highly exported commodity among the four by any of the member nations, was consumer-oriented products while agricultural-related, intermediate, and bulk commodities follow in that order.