The Impact of Predicted Earnings Surprises on Equity Prices

Abstract

In efficient markets, asset prices are expected to adjust rapidly when value relevant information is made public. In this paper we study the impact of “predicted earnings surprises” on short-term stock returns. Specifically, we collect earnings surprise forecasts for 807 firms from a free and publicly available source. These forecasts are produced by the top-rated analysts and are expected to be more accurate than the “consensus number”, which is biased by analysts’ conflicts of interests. Using standard regression analysis and an event study, we assess the impact of this information on equity prices. This impact appears to be asymmetrical, with extreme positive and negative forecasts being more significant drivers of returns. We quantify the risk-adjusted returns resulting from a trading strategy that exploits knowledge of these forecasts. Our results suggest that markets are efficient with respect to this publicly available information.