U.S.-China Sorghum Trade Analysis Within the Trade Conflict: Growth, Trends, and Forecast

Abstract

This research was conducted in 2017, prior to the U.S.-China trade dispute, and anticipated the potential risk for U.S. sorghum exports if China, the U.S. top market for sorghum, imposed trade restrictions. The USDA-ERS China model was used to analyze the impacts on U.S. and global sorghum trade. Results show that the decrease of China’s sorghum imports resulted in less sorghum demand and a lower sorghum price in the global market. Sorghum exports for U.S. and other major sorghum exporters decreased significantly. The results show the necessity for U.S. sorghum exporters to seek new sorghum export opportunities worldwide. Meanwhile, U.S. sorghum exporters may change their cropping patterns to continue making profits by switching out of sorghum.