A Parsimonious Risk Model to Assist Managers in Deciding When to Close and Reopen Business Premises Based on the Probability of Viral Infection

Abstract

The human, business and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented. Here it is argued that basic probability theory, combined with simple scenario planning, can be of value in the management of business risk alongside human resources planning. Specifically, we develop guidance on when to close and later reopen group-work office spaces based on the group size and estimated probability that one or more persons within a given group may have contracted the virus. Examples are included from the live scenario planning exercise conducted by the authors in managing their own businesses.