Chad: Human Fertility, Crop Production and Changing Weather Patterns

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of changing weather patterns on human fertility in Chad. There is literature on the effect of mortality inducing extreme weather events and fertility. However, there is less literature on the effects of less extreme changing weather patterns on fertility. We adapt Becker’s model of demand for children to a rural Chadian context and test the model with Chadian data and explore whether any effect is through biological or agricultural mechanisms. Using GIS-coded fertility and weather data, we look for correlations between the birth rate and the number of monthly high temperature days, while partitioning data by climatic zone and staple crop intensity. Running the same models with sorghum yield as the dependent variable, we find a pattern that the same planting season high temperature days that have a negative effect on the birth rate, also have a negative effect on sorghum yields, especially in the Sahel region. This accords with our model and provides tentative evidence of an agricultural mechanism by which heat affects fertility.