The Future of Higher Education in the Context of a Shrinking Student Population in Europe: A Prospective Demographic Analysis of University Systems in Spain and Italy
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33423/dvr8h580Keywords:
higher education, Higher education policy, regional university systems, Spanish and Italian universities, university enrollment, demographic projectionsAbstract
Over the last few decades, Spain and Italy have undergone profound shifts in their demographic structures as other European countries, resulting in significant fluctuations in enrollment rates across Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and a remarkable expansion of private education providers. Focusing on both national contexts and their respective central Higher Educations hubs -Madrid Region (Comunidad de Madrid) in Spain and Lazio Region (Regione Lazio) in Italy- this paper analyzes demographic trends and the evolution of student enrollment in public and private universities. Furthermore, the study provides a projection of the potential student population through 2040, revealing an imminent long-term contraction of the student body. The findings highlight key implications, including a potential threat to the financial sustainability of public institutions and an intensification of institutional competition against a backdrop of population decline. Finally, based on the comparative regional analysis, this paper offers public policy recommendations and structural reforms aimed at mitigating the impact of this future sociodemographic reality in the two countries studied, ensuring long-term resilience and strengthening higher education on the international landscape.
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